How to read the weekly US mortgage rate: Freddie Mac's survey and APR

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Kooky

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Every Thursday, one number travels through the United States housing market: the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, as published by Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Agents quote it to clients, sellers read it as a sign of how many buyers can afford their home, and buyers compare it with the rate a lender has just offered them. The number is useful for all of these purposes, but only when the reader knows what it is an average of, which days it covers and what it leaves out.

This guide reads the figure the way its publisher describes it. It covers what the survey has measured since its method changed in November 2022, which loans enter the average, the weekly calendar behind each release, the latest figures with their dates, and the difference between three numbers that are easily confused: a survey average, the interest rate on a lender's offer and an annual percentage rate, or APR. Everything stated here comes from Freddie Mac's own survey pages, from the copy of the series kept by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its FRED database, and from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The last section says plainly what those pages do not settle.

Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, release of 8 October 2026.

What the weekly figure is

The Primary Mortgage Market Survey, usually shortened to PMMS, is Freddie Mac's weekly measure of mortgage rates in the United States. Freddie Mac says it has shared the average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage through the survey since April 1971.

The survey has not always reported the same products. According to Freddie Mac's description of the survey, a one-year adjustable-rate mortgage was added in 1984, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage in 1991 and a 5/1 hybrid adjustable-rate series in January 2005. The one-year adjustable series was discontinued in January 2016. Today the survey reports two products only: the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage.

Each release gives three things for each product: the average for the week, the average of the week before and the average of the same week a year earlier. That layout already tells the reader how the publisher intends the figure to be used. It is a measure of direction and level across the whole country, set against its own past, and it is not a price list.

What changed on 17 November 2022

The word "survey" in the name describes how the figure used to be made. Until November 2022, Freddie Mac asked lenders for the rates and points they were offering. On 17 November 2022 the process changed, in Freddie Mac's words, from surveying lenders to using data from Loan Product Advisor, the system through which lenders submit loan applications to Freddie Mac. The FRED database carries the same date in the notes to its copy of the series, and says the weekly rate is now based on applications submitted to Freddie Mac by lenders across the country.

The change matters for anyone reading a long chart. A point before 17 November 2022 is an average of what lenders said they were offering. A point after that date is an average of the rate recorded on real loan applications. Freddie Mac describes the new source as mortgage rates collected from thousands of loan applications, submitted by lenders nationwide when a borrower applies. The lenders are a mix of credit unions, commercial banks and mortgage lending companies. Freddie Mac's pages do not give an exact number of lenders or of applications behind any one week.

Two things were dropped at the same moment, and both are covered later in this guide: the average fees and points that used to accompany each rate, and the adjustable-rate series.

Which loans are in the average

The weekly number is narrower than "all mortgages". Freddie Mac sets out the criteria an application must meet to be counted, and each one removes a part of the market.

• Conventional, conforming loans. The average uses conventional, single-family originations within the conforming loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Loans above those limits are outside it, and the description does not include government-backed programmes among the loans counted.
• Home purchases. Only applications to buy a home are included. A refinance is not in the figure.
• A 20 per cent down payment. The borrower profile is a loan with 20 per cent down.
• Good or excellent credit. Freddie Mac describes the borrowers counted as having good or excellent credit. Its survey pages do not give a score range for those words.
• An owner-occupied, one-unit home. The property is a single-family home of one unit that the borrower will live in. Investment properties and buildings of two to four units are outside the profile.

From all the applications that meet these criteria in a given week, Freddie Mac calculates a national average. There is one figure for the whole country: the survey pages describe no regional or state breakdown.

The practical reading follows from the list. The 7.40 per cent published on 8 October 2026 describes a well-qualified buyer of a home to live in, borrowing within the conforming limit with a fifth of the price paid in cash. A buyer with a smaller down payment, a different credit profile, a larger loan, a rental property or a refinance is applying for something the average does not measure. That borrower's rate may be higher or lower than the published figure, and the survey says nothing about by how much.

The weekly calendar behind each release

The date printed on a release is the day of publication, and the figure describes the week before it. Freddie Mac publishes the results on Thursdays at 12 p.m. Eastern Time. The period covered runs from 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the previous Thursday to 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on the Wednesday before publication. The results are an average of the rates on applications across that span. Freddie Mac states that they are not tied to the rates of a single day.

Applied to the latest release, the calendar works as follows. The figures published on Thursday 8 October 2026 cover applications from Thursday 1 October to Wednesday 7 October 2026. The figures published on Thursday 1 October cover Thursday 24 September to Wednesday 30 September. A rate that moved sharply on the Wednesday of a window counts for one day in seven of that week's average, and a move on the Thursday of publication is not in the figure at all: it belongs to the following week.

There is one exception to the Thursday rule. When a United States holiday falls on a Thursday, Freddie Mac moves publication to the Wednesday of that week.

This calendar explains a common puzzle. A buyer who asks a lender for a rate on a Thursday afternoon and compares it with the figure published at noon is comparing a rate of that day with an average of the previous seven days, the most recent of which ended the night before. When rates have been rising through the week, the lender's rate of the day can sit above the average for that reason alone. When rates have been falling, the opposite can happen.

The latest figures and how to read them

The release of 8 October 2026 put the 30-year fixed-rate average at 7.40 per cent, against 7.28 per cent a week earlier and 6.30 per cent a year earlier. The 15-year fixed-rate average was 6.73 per cent, against 6.60 per cent a week earlier and 5.53 per cent a year earlier.

Three comparisons can be computed from those figures. Over the week, the 30-year average rose by 0.12 percentage points and the 15-year average by 0.13 points. Over the year, the 30-year average rose by 1.10 points and the 15-year average by 1.20 points. And within the same release, the 15-year average stood 0.67 points below the 30-year average.

A note on vocabulary helps here. A move from 7.28 to 7.40 per cent is a rise of 0.12 percentage points. It is not a rise of 0.12 per cent: measured as a proportion of the earlier rate, 0.12 on 7.28 is about 1.6 per cent. This guide gives changes in points.

The FRED database keeps the weekly history, and its five most recent observations show how the latest figure was reached.

Each of the four weekly changes in that run was a rise: 0.19 points, then 0.08, then 0.25, then 0.12. Together they add 0.64 points in four weeks, from 6.76 to 7.40 per cent. The size of the steps is uneven, which is a reason to read the series over several weeks and not from one release to the next. A single weekly change says what happened across two seven-day windows. It carries no statement about the following week, and Freddie Mac's survey pages make no forecast.

What a change in the rate means in dollars

A rate becomes concrete when it is turned into a monthly payment. The following is a worked example, not market data. It assumes a loan of US$400,000, a fixed rate for the whole term, level monthly payments of principal and interest, and nothing else: no property tax, no insurance and no fees. The payment is computed with the standard formula for a level-payment loan, and the rates are the survey averages named above.

On those assumptions, the week's rise of 0.12 points adds US$32.67 to the monthly payment. The rise of 1.10 points over the year adds US$293.63 a month, which is US$3,523.56 over twelve months. The comparison between the two terms runs the other way on each measure: at the averages of 8 October 2026, the 15-year loan costs US$765.68 more each month than the 30-year loan, and US$360,690 less in interest if both run to their final payment.

The example shows why a figure quoted to two decimal places is followed so closely. It also shows its own limit. The survey averages are for a particular borrower profile, and the example applies them to a round loan amount chosen for illustration. A real payment depends on the rate a lender actually offers, on the loan amount and on the charges that come with the loan.

Why a survey average is not a lender's quote

Freddie Mac draws the line itself. Its description of the survey says the rates reflect loan applications for the given week, and are not current lender quotes or the rates at which loans have settled. Four differences follow from the facts already set out.

The first is time. A quote is a rate offered at one moment. The survey figure is an average across seven days, published about twelve hours after the last of them ended.

The second is the borrower. A quote is built for one applicant and one property. The survey figure is built from applicants with good or excellent credit and 20 per cent down, buying a one-unit home to live in with a conforming loan.

The third is the spread of rates inside the average. A national average of thousands of applications contains rates above it and rates below it. The survey pages publish the average only, and give no range. Freddie Mac's own commentary on the release of 8 October 2026 points at that spread when it reminds borrowers that shopping around and obtaining several quotes can potentially save them thousands over the life of a loan.

The fourth is cost. The survey figure is an interest rate and nothing more. Since November 2022 it has carried no information on the fees and points paid to obtain that rate, so two loans at the same rate can sit in the same average while costing different amounts to set up.

For an agent or a seller, the consequence is one of wording. "The Freddie Mac average rose to 7.40 per cent this week" is a statement the source supports. "Rates are 7.40 per cent" is not, because no borrower is offered the average.

The weekly figure is last week's average for one kind of borrower. A quote is today's price for one person.

Interest rate and APR on a loan offer

The third number a reader meets is the annual percentage rate. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau defines the two terms in a consumer answer it last reviewed on 28 August 2026. The interest rate is the cost a borrower pays each year to borrow the money, expressed as a percentage. It does not reflect fees or any other charges for the loan. The APR is a broader measure of the cost of borrowing: it reflects the interest rate and also the points, the mortgage broker fees and the other charges paid to get the loan. For that reason, the Bureau says, the APR is usually higher than the interest rate.

The Bureau also says where each figure is found on the Loan Estimate form. The interest rate is on page 1, in the section headed "Loan Terms". The APR is on page 3, in the section headed "Comparisons".

It follows that the Freddie Mac figure is comparable with the interest rate on page 1 of a Loan Estimate, and not with the APR on page 3. A buyer who sets an APR against the weekly average is comparing a figure that reflects charges with one that does not.

The following illustration is this guide's own approximation, not a calculation taken from the Bureau or from any lender, and it shows only the direction of the gap. Take the US$400,000 loan over 30 years at 7.40 per cent from the earlier example, with its monthly payment of US$2,769.52, and assume US$8,000 of charges paid to obtain it. One simple way to express those charges as a yearly rate is to ask what rate would make the same payment repay US$392,000, the loan less the charges. The answer is about 7.61 per cent, roughly 0.21 points above the interest rate. The charges are assumed and the method is this guide's own simplification, not the regulatory APR calculation: the Bureau's answer does not set out the formula lenders must use, and the figure on a real Loan Estimate is the one that counts.

The Bureau attaches several cautions to the APR. On an adjustable-rate mortgage, the APR does not reflect the maximum interest rate the loan can reach. Care is needed when the APR of a fixed-rate loan is compared with that of an adjustable-rate loan, or when two adjustable-rate loans are compared with each other. The APR of a closed-end loan includes fees while the APR of a home equity line of credit does not, so the two are not directly comparable. And the Bureau says the APR alone should not decide which loan suits a borrower.

What the survey no longer reports: points and adjustable rates

Readers of older articles and charts will find two things that the current release does not contain.

The first is the average of fees and points. Before November 2022, each weekly rate came with the points paid to obtain it, which told the reader whether a low average had been bought with higher upfront charges. Freddie Mac explains that Loan Product Advisor does not always require lenders to provide fees and points, so an average can no longer be reported. The result is that the current figure cannot say whether the borrowers behind it paid a little or a lot at the outset to secure their rate. Two weekly figures from different years are therefore not built on quite the same information, even where the rate is identical.

The second is the adjustable-rate mortgage. Freddie Mac gives two reasons for ending the series in November 2022: adjustable-rate loans indexed to alternatives other than Treasury securities had become more common, and the market is dominated by fixed-rate products. It adds that adjustable-rate mortgages remain most popular for larger loans above the conforming limits, a part of the market that the survey's criteria exclude in any case. Anyone looking for a current national average on adjustable-rate loans will not find it in this survey.

The same series in the FRED database

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis republishes the survey in its FRED database. The series is titled "30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States". FRED lists its source as Freddie Mac and its release as the Primary Mortgage Market Survey, so it is a copy of the same figure and not a second measurement.

The labels on the series are worth reading once. The unit is per cent, not seasonally adjusted: the figure is published as calculated, with no statistical smoothing for the time of year. The frequency is weekly, ending Thursday, which matches Freddie Mac's publication day. On 8 October 2026 the database was updated at 11:02 a.m. Central Time, which is 12:02 p.m. Eastern Time and so within minutes of Freddie Mac's noon release. FRED listed the next release for 15 October 2026.

The notes to the series repeat the method change of 17 November 2022. They also carry Freddie Mac's terms: the data are provided "as is" and are copyrighted by Freddie Mac and reprinted with permission. A chart drawn from FRED that crosses November 2022 joins two methods in one line, and the notes are the only place on the chart where that is said.

What these sources do not settle

Four subjects sit close to the weekly figure and are deliberately left open here, because the pages read for this guide do not establish them.

The first is the daily mortgage rate index. Freddie Mac's survey pages do not describe the daily rate measures issued by other publishers, and this guide makes no statement about how they are constructed. What can be said from the survey's own method is narrower: a seven-day average cannot be expected to match any single-day measure during a week in which rates move.

The second is the link between mortgage rates and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The Freddie Mac and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau pages used here do not describe that relationship, so it is not explained in this guide.

The third is the Federal Reserve's policy rate. Nothing in Freddie Mac's description ties the weekly average to the federal funds rate: the average is computed from loan applications, by the method set out above. How a policy decision reaches mortgage rates, and how quickly, is a separate question that these pages do not answer.

The fourth is the detail behind the average. Freddie Mac's pages give no score range for "good or excellent" credit, no count of applications for a given week and no range of rates around the mean. A reader who needs those must look elsewhere, and should treat any figure offered for them as coming from another source.

Within those limits, the weekly figure does one job well. It gives a consistent, dated answer to a single question: what rate, on average, well-qualified buyers applying for a conforming 30-year or 15-year fixed-rate purchase loan in the United States were given in the seven days to last Wednesday.

Kooky, from Shaka

Kooky edits Agents Estate and builds Shaka, the payment router he made for real estate professionals. One payment comes in, and every agent, agency and party in the deal receives their signed share on closing date.

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