HDB resale flats in Singapore: index slips for a third quarter running

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Resale prices of public housing flats in Singapore fell for a third quarter in a row between July and September 2026. The Housing and Development Board's flash estimate, reported on 1 October by EdgeProp Singapore and The Straits Times, puts the HDB Resale Price Index at 202.4 for the third quarter, down 0.2% from the second.

The fall is small, and it arrived with a surprise on the other side of the ledger. EdgeProp reports that 7,528 resale flats changed hands in the quarter, 17.7% more than in the three months before, and that the number of flats sold for at least S$1 million passed 500 in a single quarter for the first time. A market where the index edges down while the most expensive flats sell faster than ever needs reading line by line, and that is what the first week of October's figures allow.

HDB flash estimate for the third quarter of 2026 and transaction figures reported by EdgeProp Singapore, 1 October 2026.

A third small fall in the index

The Resale Price Index is HDB's own measure of how resale flat prices move from one quarter to the next. The flash estimate is the first reading of the quarter. According to HDB's release, the index fell 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026 and 0.3% in the second, so the third-quarter dip of 0.2% is the third in a row and slightly smaller than the one before it.

The Straits Times described the first-quarter fall as the first dip in close to seven years. That gives the size of the turn: after a long run of rising quarters, 2026 has so far brought three small steps down and none up.

Small is the right word. Agency ERA Singapore, in its commentary on the flash estimate, gives the index at 203.6 for the fourth quarter of 2025. Set against the flash reading of 202.4, that is a fall of 1.2 points over nine months, or about 0.6% in all. Prices have stopped rising; the index does not show them dropping sharply.

HDB itself is not treating the question as closed. The Straits Times quotes the board in its release: "Nonetheless, we will continue to monitor the resale market."

Sales rebound by nearly a fifth

The volume figures move the other way. EdgeProp reports 7,528 resale transactions in the third quarter, against 6,396 in the second, a rise of 17.7%. The Straits Times adds the comparison with a year earlier: 7,157 flats were resold in the third quarter of 2025, which makes this year's figure 5.2% higher.

ERA Singapore's commentary breaks the rise down by flat type, and the pattern is clear: the bigger the flat, the faster sales grew.

Four-room flats remain the heart of the market, with more than four in ten of the quarter's sales. But they grew a little more slowly than the market as a whole, while executive flats, the largest type in the table, grew more than twice as fast. A quarter in which large flats take a bigger share of sales is also a quarter in which more deals land at the top of the price range, and that is exactly what the next set of figures shows.

Million-dollar flats pass 500 in a quarter

EdgeProp counts 597 resale flats sold for at least S$1 million in the third quarter. ERA Singapore puts the rise at 21.8% from 490 in the second quarter, and notes that no quarter had passed 500 before. The average price of these flats was about S$1.16 million, 1.1% more than the S$1.147 million average of the second quarter.

The top of the range moved in September as well. A five-room flat at The Pinnacle@Duxton sold for S$1.72 million, EdgeProp reports, beating a sale at S$1.701 million earlier in the month. Neither is the highest price on record for a resale flat, which EdgeProp put at S$1,728,000, for a sale registered in April 2026.

These deals are concentrated in a handful of towns. ERA's count by town puts three of them well ahead.

Together the three towns account for 235 of the 597 sales. A few projects do much of the work: ERA counts 63 million-dollar sales at Alkaff Oasis and Alkaff Courtview in Bidadari, and 38 across the Dawson projects.

The newer detail is at the edge of the map. According to EdgeProp, 11.4% of the quarter's million-dollar deals were in non-mature estates, the highest share recorded so far. The seven-figure flat is still mostly a mature-estate story, but a growing minority of these sales now happens in non-mature estates.

ERA's key executive officer, Eugene Lim, offered one explanation in the agency's commentary: "Demand for million-dollar flats could have been driven by cash-flush private homeowners." That points to a rule change made in the middle of the quarter.

What changed in the rules this summer

Two policy changes fell inside the quarter, and both are cited by the sources as part of the picture.

The Straits Times reports that National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat explained the easing by the state of the market: conditions had improved and resale prices had cooled considerably. In other words, the rule was lifted because prices had stopped climbing, and its removal then brought a group of buyers back into the resale market two months before the quarter closed.

How much that moved prices is the open question. Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, told EdgeProp that the effect on prices in the third quarter was relatively muted. The index supports him: a quarter that includes two months without the wait-out period still ended 0.2% lower. The effect is easier to see in the number of sales, and in the number of sales at the top.

The second change concerns new flats. From August 2026 the income ceiling for BTO flats, the new flats sold by HDB, rose to S$16,000 for couples and families and to S$8,000 for singles, EdgeProp reports. A higher ceiling lets more households choose a new flat from HDB instead of a resale one. Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, is quoted in the report: "The higher income ceiling would allow some to buy larger or pricier BTO flats."

EdgeProp's report names two more factors on the list. One is supply: 13,484 flats reach their five-year minimum occupation period in 2026, the point from which their owners may sell them on the resale market. The other is schooling. From 2027, the places set aside in Phase 2C of Primary 1 registration rise from 40 to 60, and 12 schools in Bukit Timah, Newton and Marine Parade will split their places between children living within 2km and those living beyond it. The report cites the change as a factor in demand for flats.

September in the SRX and 99.co figures

A second set of figures, published in the first week of October, looks at September alone. It comes from the monthly flash report of the property data firms SRX and 99.co, as reported by Malay Mail on 7 October in an article credited to AsiaOne. It is a private data series, not HDB's, and its monthly changes are not comparable with the quarterly index.

On those figures, 2,248 resale flats were sold in September, 10.9% fewer than in August and 2.8% more than in September 2025. Prices rose 0.6% over the month and stood 0.4% lower than a year earlier.

The split between estates is wide. Prices in mature estates rose 1.4% over the month and were 0.6% higher than a year before. In non-mature estates they rose 0.1% over the month and were 1.2% lower over the year. By flat type, five-room flats gained 1.7% in the month, while three-room flats slipped 0.1%, executive flats 0.2% and four-room flats 0.4%.

The mix of sales shows where the volume sits. Four-room flats made up 44% of September's transactions, five-room flats 26.1%, three-room flats 20.6% and executive flats 9.3%. Non-mature estates took 54.5% of sales and mature estates 45.5%.

Then comes the monthly record. The report counts 209 flats sold for at least S$1 million in September, up from 201 in August and equal to 9.3% of the month's sales. Toa Payoh had 33 of them, Queenstown 28 and Bedok 20, or 81 between the three. The highest price in a non-mature estate was S$1.292 million, for an executive flat in Hougang.

Luqman Hakim, chief data and analytics officer at 99.co, linked the record to the end of the wait-out period for private homeowners, in comments carried by Malay Mail: "This could have contributed to September's record number of million-dollar resale transactions."

What the agencies expect for the rest of 2026

Forecasts are opinions, and the two agencies quoted in the coverage do not agree. Huttons expects between 22,000 and 26,000 resale transactions in 2026 and a price change of between minus 1% and plus 1% for the year. ERA expects about 26,000 transactions and price growth of 2% to 5%.

The figures already published give a sense of the distance. ERA counts 26,169 resale transactions in 2025. The second and third quarters of 2026 together produced 13,924, and the index has fallen in each of the year's first three quarters, so ERA's price range would need a clear rise in the fourth quarter to be reached.

Huttons' Lee Sze Teck told EdgeProp he expects the resale market to bottom in the fourth quarter. At 99.co, Luqman Hakim's view, as reported by Malay Mail, is that prices could stay relatively stable with room for modest gains.

November's flat launch is the next test

The next date in the calendar is on the new-flat side. HDB's release also covered upcoming supply, and The Straits Times, citing HDB, reports that about 7,960 flats will be offered in the November 2026 sales exercise. They are spread across Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun, and include community care apartments in Toa Payoh.

It comes after the income ceiling rose in August, so it is a chance to see how many households that were heading for the resale market now choose a new flat. Luqman Hakim names the exercise as the next catalyst for resale prices.

For now the reading is a modest one. The flash estimate is the first figure for the quarter, not the last word on it, and it shows prices 0.2% lower, sales 17.7% higher and a record number of flats above S$1 million. Whether the fourth quarter marks the bottom Huttons expects, or a fourth small fall, is what the next index will show.

Kooky, from Shaka

Kooky edits Agents Estate and builds Shaka, the payment router he made for real estate professionals. One payment comes in, and every agent, agency and party in the deal receives their signed share on closing date.

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