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Kooky
Builder of Shaka, the payment router that pays every agent their commission on closing date.
About Kooky and Shaka →Households of the baby boom and Silent generations in the United States are expected to release 13.9 million homes between 2026 and 2036, according to a Realtor.com analysis published on Monday 5 October 2026 and reported the same day by the trade publication HousingWire. Of those homes, only 0.38 million are starter homes, which works out at about 38,000 a year.
The gap between the two numbers is the story for first-time buyers. A very large stock of housing is due to change hands, and the analysis treats that as good news. But the homes concerned are mostly the size a family moves up to, not the size most people begin with. A separate survey of younger buyers, reported by HousingWire on the same day, adds a second layer: many of the people who would buy those first homes say they want to own and are uneasy about how to get there.
Realtor.com analysis published 5 October 2026, as reported by HousingWire.
Where the 13.9 million comes from
The figure is a projection, not a count of homes already listed. As HousingWire reports it, Realtor.com looked at owner-occupied homes held by baby boomer and Silent Generation households and estimated how that stock will shrink as those households age. The analysis puts it at 36.7 million homes in 2026 and expects it to fall to 22.8 million in 2036. The difference is the 13.9 million homes, or about 1.39 million a year on average.
The pace is not expected to be even. Annual releases are projected to rise from 1.27 million in 2027 to 1.52 million in 2036, so the later years of the decade carry more of the total than the early ones. The source of the homes also shifts: according to the analysis, baby boomers overtake the Silent Generation as the main source around 2029.
Related readAustralia's expanded 5% Deposit Scheme, one year and 102,594 buyers onThe comparison with the past decade shows how much larger the handover is becoming. Realtor.com puts the previous ten years at about 8 million homes released by the same generations, HousingWire reports. The new projection is 5.9 million homes higher, which the analysis describes as a 74 per cent jump in turnover from those cohorts.
"Release" is the word the analysis uses, and it is a neutral one. It describes a home leaving the hands of an older owner-occupier household over the period. It does not say that each of those homes will be offered for sale on the open market, and the analysis itself tests what happens if only part of them are, as the family-home figures below show.
Three sizes of home, three different pictures
The analysis splits the 13.9 million by number of bedrooms, and the three groups behave very differently. Realtor.com defines a starter home as one with no more than two bedrooms, a family home as one with three or four, and a large home as one with five or more.
| Size of home | Homes over ten years | Per year | Compared with recent listings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starter (0 to 2 bedrooms) | 0.38 million | About 38,000 | 3.2% of annual listings |
| Family (3 to 4 bedrooms) | 9.9 million | Nearly 1 million | 24.7% of recent listings |
| Large (5 or more bedrooms) | 3.6 million | About 360,000 | 67.2% of recent listings |
Realtor.com analysis published 5 October 2026, as reported by HousingWire. The last column sets each year's expected releases against Realtor.com listings, as the report gives it.
Family homes are the bulk of it: 71.2 per cent of the total, by Realtor.com's count. The analysis adds a cautious scenario for this group. If half of those homes reach the market, family-home listings could rise by about 12.3 per cent, HousingWire reports. That is a meaningful addition for households looking for a third or fourth bedroom.
Large homes are fewer in number but weigh most heavily on their own segment. The roughly 360,000 a year expected from older owners is equal to 67.2 per cent of recent large-home listings, the biggest proportional effect of the three groups.
Related readHousing support for Emiratis in Dubai: what the official texts sayStarter homes sit at the other end. On the figures in the table, they make up under 3 per cent of the 13.9 million, and the yearly flow is equal to 3.2 per cent of current annual Realtor.com listings. The segment where a first purchase usually happens is the one the handover touches least.
Why so few starter homes come back
The small number is not explained by older owners having few small homes. The analysis says the opposite. Older owners hold about 1.33 million starter homes, which is 51.3 per cent of the segment, according to the figures HousingWire reports. Just over half of the starter-home segment, in other words, belongs to these two generations.
What differs is how many of them are expected to be released. Realtor.com expects less than one-third of those 1.33 million homes to be released over the decade, and the 0.38 million in the projection is consistent with that. Most of the small homes held by older owners are expected to stay with them through 2036.
The analysis also reports how many owners in their seventies have no mortgage left, and here again the smallest homes stand apart. Among owners aged 70 to 79, nearly three-quarters of starter-home owners own their home free and clear, meaning with no loan against it. The share is 65.1 per cent for family-home owners and 58.9 per cent for large-home owners.
None of this is a matter of one generation holding back another. An owner in a small home with no loan against it is, on these figures, simply the owner least expected to move over the decade. The figures describe where people live and what they owe, and the outcome for the starter segment follows from that.
Related readDubai's First-Time Home Buyer Programme: Who Qualifies and How It WorksThe handover set against the shortage
The report sets the projection next to an estimated national housing shortage of about 4 million homes. The conclusion drawn by Jiayi Xu, senior economist at Realtor.com, is measured: as quoted by HousingWire, she welcomed the handover as a relief but said it is not large enough to solve the shortage on its own.
The numbers explain that caution. The 13.9 million homes are existing homes changing occupants, not homes added to the stock, and they are concentrated in sizes that do not match where first purchases are made. A shortage counted in homes is not closed by homes that already exist being passed from one household to the next, even when the handover eases pressure in some segments.
Demand is moving too. The analysis cites a projection from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies that household growth will run at about 859,000 a year over the coming decade, against an annual average of 1.2 million since 2000, HousingWire reports. Fewer new households each year means slower growth in the number of people looking for a home, at the same time as more homes held by older owners are released.
For younger buyers, the starting point is a late one. The median age of first-time homebuyers in the United States is at an all-time high of 40, according to a figure cited in a HousingWire column published on 2 October 2026.
What younger buyers told a separate survey
On 5 October, HousingWire also reported the findings of "How You're Built to Buy: A NextGen Homebuyer Report", published by National MI and FirstHome IQ and led by Kristin Messerli, executive director of FirstHome IQ. It surveyed Gen Z and millennial respondents on how they feel about money and buying a home.
Related readUsing CPF savings for a first home in Singapore: limits and HPSNational MI and FirstHome IQ, "How You're Built to Buy: A NextGen Homebuyer Report", as reported by HousingWire on 5 October 2026. The security figure is given as "6 in 10".
Two of those answers pull in opposite directions, and both are held by large groups. Six in ten respondents say owning a home would make them feel more secure than anything else they could do with their money, while more than four in ten say a mortgage feels like a trap. The wish to own is clearly there; the loan that makes it possible is what worries people.
The worry about money is not limited to those with little of it. According to the report, the group who fear their finances will not last includes a majority of respondents with strong savings habits and of those with incomes above US$100,000. Nearly nine in ten respondents report some level of financial shame.
National MI also says many consumers still believe they need a deposit of 20 per cent, although options with a lower down payment, backed by private mortgage insurance, exist. The point comes from the company itself, and it fits the finding that six in ten respondents find the amount of homebuying information overwhelming.
The survey report gives no sample size and no field dates
The HousingWire report of the National MI and FirstHome IQ survey states neither how many people answered nor when they were asked. The percentages show how respondents feel; they are not a measure of the whole generation.
What it means for agents and first-time buyers
For listing agents, the Realtor.com projection points to where new stock is most likely to appear over the decade: three- and four-bedroom homes, and larger ones, held by baby boomer and Silent Generation households. The rising yearly figures, from 1.27 million in 2027 to 1.52 million in 2036, suggest that homes coming from older owners become a larger part of the trade towards the end of the period.
For agents and loan officers who work with first-time buyers, the same projection is a reminder that relief in the family-home segment does not automatically reach the entry level. A buyer who needs a home of two bedrooms or fewer is competing for a segment that receives about 38,000 homes a year from this source. A buyer able to start in a three-bedroom home is looking at a segment with far more movement ahead.
Related readSingapore first-time buyers: BTO ballot, flat classes and CPF grantsBorrowing costs sit on top of that. Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com, is quoted by Real Estate News, in an article published on 8 October 2026, as saying that first-time buyers, who have no equity from a previous home, are the group most exposed to high mortgage rates. An existing owner who sells brings the proceeds to the next purchase; a first-time buyer brings savings alone.
The survey suggests what younger buyers are asking for is less a product than a person. Bri Lees, a FirstHome IQ board member, is quoted by HousingWire as saying that these buyers want to own and are waiting for someone they trust. With six in ten saying they are overwhelmed by information, plain explanations of the down payment actually required and of what a mortgage commits a household to are likely to matter as much as the listings themselves.
What the two reports leave open
Both documents have limits that the sources themselves make visible. The Realtor.com figures are projections to 2036, built on how older households are expected to age out of ownership. How many released homes are sold on the open market, passed to relatives or rented is not settled by the totals, which is why the analysis tests a half-share scenario for family homes instead of assuming all 9.9 million are listed.
The 4 million shortage is an estimate, given without its method in the HousingWire report, and the household growth figure belongs to Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. The two are quoted side by side in that report; they are not presented as parts of one model.
What the two reports share is a calm reading of a subject that is often told as a contest between generations. Many older owners are staying in homes they have paid for. Younger buyers want to own and say so. The projection shows the two meeting mainly in the middle of the market over the next ten years, with the smallest homes the scarce part throughout.
Kooky, from Shaka
Kooky edits Agents Estate and builds Shaka, the payment router he made for real estate professionals. One payment comes in, and every agent, agency and party in the deal receives their signed share on closing date.
