US 30-year mortgage rate climbs to 7.40%, a fourth weekly rise

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Kooky

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The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the United States stood at 7.40% on Thursday 8 October 2026, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released the same day. A week earlier the same survey gave 7.28%, and a year earlier 6.30%.

That is a rise of 0.12 percentage points in seven days and of 1.10 points in twelve months. The trade publication Real Estate News, reporting on the release, called the figure the highest in nearly three years. The 15-year fixed loan moved the same way, to 6.73%.

One weekly number rarely changes a household's plans. Four rises in four weeks are another matter, and this is what the survey's last five weekly readings show. This article sets out the figures, the other measures published in the same days, what the sources say about buyers and lenders, and what forecasters quoted in the press expect next.

Four rises in four weeks

The survey's last four releases each came out on a Thursday. The release of 17 September 2026 gave an average of 6.95% for the 30-year fixed loan. The release of 24 September gave 7.03%, and that of 1 October gave 7.28%. The figure of 8 October, 7.40%, is therefore 0.45 percentage points above the level of three weeks before. The run began a week earlier still: the copy of the series held in the FRED database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis gives 6.76% for 10 September, so the reading of 17 September was itself a rise, of 0.19 points. That makes four consecutive weekly rises and 0.64 points in four weeks.

The steepest step came in the week to 1 October, when the average gained 0.25 points. Axios, reporting that day, described 7.28% as the highest reading since November 2023. The latest week added a smaller 0.12 points on top of it.

The comparison with last year has widened at the same pace. On 1 October the 30-year rate was 0.94 points above its level of a year earlier, which was 6.34%. On 8 October the gap was 1.10 points, against 6.30%. Real Estate News rounded it to 1.1 points in its own report.

The 15-year loan follows the same path

The 15-year fixed mortgage, the other loan Freddie Mac tracks in the survey, averaged 6.73% on 8 October. It was 6.60% a week earlier and 6.42% the week before that. Over two weeks it has gained 0.31 points, a little less than the 0.37 points added by the 30-year loan over the same two weeks.

A year earlier the 15-year rate averaged 5.53%, so the annual rise is 1.20 points, slightly more than for the longer loan. Here too the comparison has widened in a week: on 1 October the 15-year rate stood 1.05 points above its level of a year before, which was 5.55%. The weekly steps were 0.18 points in the week to 1 October and 0.13 points in the week to 8 October, so the shorter loan, like the longer one, rose fastest in the first of the two weeks. The distance between the two products has barely moved: the 15-year loan was 0.68 points cheaper than the 30-year on 1 October and 0.67 points cheaper on 8 October.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, used his statement in the release to remind borrowers of the value of shopping around and asking several lenders for a quote.

Daily measures sit higher still

Freddie Mac's figure is a weekly average. Other firms publish daily readings, and in early October these were above it. Real Estate News reported that Mortgage News Daily put the 30-year rate at 7.5% on Thursday 8 October, the day of the Freddie Mac release. HousingWire, in an analysis by Logan Mohtashami published on 3 October, gave a daily 30-year rate of 7.57%.

HousingWire's own data service breaks the picture down by type of loan. Its readings for Tuesday 6 October, published in an article by Neil Pierson, show how unevenly the rise has been shared. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so 31 basis points is 0.31 points.

FHA loans moved the most in those two weeks, by nearly twice as much as conforming loans. Jumbo loans carried the highest rate of the three, 0.22 points above conforming loans; their rise of 45 basis points is given without a stated period. On these readings all three types were above 7.5% two days before Freddie Mac published its weekly average of 7.40%.

These measures come from other sources than Freddie Mac's survey, and they are not interchangeable with it. What they share is the direction: each of the readings above that comes with a comparison had risen.

What it means for buyers

The first effect is on what a buyer can borrow. HousingWire's article of 6 October cited the First American Real House Price Index, which estimated that rates above 7% take about US$19,000 off the purchasing power of the typical borrower. In the same article Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, said: "The affordability tug-of-war has shifted."

Demand has already reacted, according to the lenders' trade body: the Mortgage Bankers Association said applications fell 6% in the week ended 25 September and that adjustable-rate loans made up 10.3% of them, the highest share since October 2025, Axios reported.

First-time buyers are the group most often named. Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com, is reported by Real Estate News as saying that first-time buyers, who have no equity built up from a previous purchase, are the most exposed to high mortgage rates.

The same Real Estate News report, by Dave Gallagher, carried two figures that help place the pressure. The National Association of Home Builders put the share of income taken by a mortgage payment at 34% for a new home and 36% for an existing home in the second quarter of 2026. And John Burns Research and Consulting said new homes are now 2% cheaper than existing homes, the first such gap in 52 years.

Builders have spoken of the same squeeze from their side. On an earnings call quoted by Axios on 1 October, William Hollinger, senior vice-president at KB Home, said softer conditions and affordability pressures had added to pressure on pricing.

For agents, the practical consequence is a conversation that changes from one week to the next. A buyer who was quoted a rate when the average was 6.95% on 17 September faces a different monthly payment at 7.40%. How much different depends on the loan, the lender and the borrower, which is the point of the advice in Freddie Mac's release.

How lenders see the next six months

Lenders are preparing for rates to stay high. A column published by HousingWire on 8 October reported a live poll of the audience at the HousingWire Mortgage Banking Summit in Dallas on 1 October. Its authors, Rick Roque of NFM Lending and Jim Deitch of Teraverde, ran the poll themselves.

Asked where rates would be in six months, 27% of respondents said about 7.5%, 25% said just under 8% and 18% said above 8%. That makes about 70% expecting 7.5% or more. A further 31% expected roughly 7%, and 2% expected a return to rates beginning with a six. As published, these shares add up to slightly more than 100%, so they are best read as rounded.

The answers on strategy point the same way. According to the column, 78% of respondents plan to reduce operating costs so that they can offer better pricing. Asked how they would defend themselves against competitors, 45% chose cost, 30% chose partnerships with Realtors and builders, 21% a broader range of products and 4% higher pay for loan officers. Four per cent said they plan to sell.

The authors set this against the Mortgage Bankers Association's forecast of lending volumes, which they cite as US$2.12 trillion of originations in 2026 and US$2.10 trillion in 2027, or about 5.5 million loans a year. On those figures, the volume forecast for 2027 is slightly below that of 2026, which is the setting for the answers on cost and competition.

They also give their own estimate that roughly seven in ten outstanding mortgages carry a rate below 5%. Set beside an average of 7.40% for a new 30-year loan, that estimate describes a wide gap between what many owners pay today and what a new mortgage would cost them. The authors add that, by their estimate, 80% to 90% of new-home sales now need a rate buydown.

Melissa Cohn, regional vice-president at William Raveis Mortgage, drew a comparison with an earlier episode in HousingWire's article of 6 October: in her view the market is going back to a period like 2022, when rates rose precipitously.

Why rates moved and what forecasters expect

The press coverage of the two releases ties mortgage rates to the 10-year Treasury yield. Axios reported on 1 October that this yield has risen by more than 1.25 percentage points since the war with Iran began in February.

Mortgage spreads have widened a little as well. HousingWire's analysis of 3 October put them at 2.04%, against 1.98% the week before and a historical range of 1.60% to 1.80%. On those figures the spread is above the top of its usual range.

The same analysis named the level to watch. A 10-year yield of 5.40% is the scenario it cites for mortgage rates of 8%. That is a scenario, not a prediction, and HousingWire presents it as such.

Forecasts further out are calmer. Capital Economics projects that the 30-year rate will average 6.25% by the end of 2027, Axios reported. Its senior North America economist, Thomas Ryan, told Axios that the firm expects the situation to improve next year as energy prices drop back.

None of these views is a certainty, and they do not agree with one another: the summit audience mostly expected 7.5% or more in six months, while Capital Economics sees a clearly lower average by the end of next year. The next fixed point is closer. Freddie Mac's last four releases all appeared on a Thursday, and on that rhythm the next reading would fall on 15 October 2026.

The level, 7.40%, is one fact. The pace is another: 0.64 points in four weeks, and 1.10 points in a year.

Kooky, from Shaka

Kooky edits Agents Estate and builds Shaka, the payment router he made for real estate professionals. One payment comes in, and every agent, agency and party in the deal receives their signed share on closing date.

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