Florida poll puts Amendment 3 at 55%, short of the 60% it needs

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A poll published on Wednesday 7 October 2026 by NBC6 South Florida found that 55% of the Florida voters surveyed support Amendment 3, the proposal to raise the state's homestead exemption, with 26% opposed and 19% undecided. The survey, carried out by Mason-Dixon for the NBC6 and Telemundo station group that published it, puts the measure five points under the 60% of votes it needs when Floridians vote on Tuesday 3 November.

According to the Florida Division of Elections, which lists it as number 3 on the 2026 ballot, the amendment would lift the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes to US$150,000 in 2027 and US$250,000 in 2028, halve the yearly cap on assessment increases for other property, and set out what counties and cities may spend property tax on.

Mason-Dixon poll for NBC6 and Telemundo, 625 registered Florida voters who said they were likely to vote, 28 September to 1 October 2026, as published by NBC6 South Florida.

What the poll measured

NBC6 reports that Mason-Dixon interviewed 625 randomly selected registered Florida voters by telephone between 28 September and 1 October, all of whom said they were likely to vote in the general election. The sample held 277 registered Republicans, 214 Democrats and 134 independents, and the margin of error is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Those who back the measure were asked why. According to NBC6, 49% of supporters said property taxes are too high and 29% pointed to excessive government spending. Among opponents, 55% said they were worried about cuts to local services, and 30% expected local governments to recover the lost revenue from residents in other ways.

This is one poll, paid for by the broadcaster that published it, and it has a large undecided group. Other surveys this year have given lower and higher readings. Fox 13 Tampa Bay reported on 23 September that a St. Pete Polls survey of nearly 1,000 likely voters found 45% in favour, about 30% against and 25% undecided; the West Palm Beach station CBS12 gave that survey's party figures as 63% support among Republicans, 40% to 32% in favour among independents and 48% to 24% against among Democrats. Neither station gave its field dates.

Earlier surveys showed how much the answer moves with the question. A University of North Florida poll of 848 likely voters, reported by the Tampa Bay Times in July, found 61% in favour and 32% against when respondents were told the measure would require local governments to use property tax only for core public services, and 45% in favour, with 47% against, when they read that it would create a US$11.8 billion shortfall for local governments. CBS News Miami reported in August that a James Madison Institute survey found 74% support among registered voters, falling to 55% when trade-offs were presented.

How support splits by party and group

The widest gap in the Mason-Dixon figures is between parties. Republicans support the amendment by 74% to 13%. Democrats oppose it by 43% to 36%. Independents lean in favour, 43% to 29%, but 28% of them had not decided, the highest undecided share of the three groups.

Other groups differ less. NBC6 gives 59% support among men and 51% among women. By age, the youngest voters, 18 to 34, are the least favourable at 48%, while each older band sits at 56% or 57%. White and Hispanic voters both support the measure at 58%; among Black voters 33% support it and 42% oppose it. A second NBC6 report on the same poll puts support in south-east Florida at 48%, with 31% against and 21% undecided.

What the amendment would change

Amendment 3 began as House Joint Resolution 1F, which took shape in a special session of the Florida Legislature in June. The Florida Senate's bill record shows it cleared the House by 75 votes to 26 and the Senate by 30 to 9 on 2 June 2026, and was filed with the Secretary of State on 16 June. It amends sections 4, 6 and 9 of Article VII of the state constitution and adds a schedule to Article XII.

The ballot summary published by the Division of Elections sets out five changes. First, the homestead exemption for levies other than school district levies rises to US$150,000 on 1 January 2027 and US$250,000 on 1 January 2028, and is adjusted for inflation after that. Second, the Legislature must set a uniform procedure by which counties and municipalities may raise the exemption further, and special districts may do so if a referendum approves it. The enrolled resolution describes that local increase as reaching up to all remaining assessed value.

Third, the yearly cap on assessment increases for non-homestead property, such as rental homes, second homes and commercial property, falls from 10% to 5% from 1 January 2027, again for non-school levies. Fourth, counties and municipalities are to use property tax for listed purposes. The resolution names public safety, education and public schools, infrastructure, natural resource projects, local bonds and existing debt, employees' retirement benefits, and the operations and administration of local government, except spending that state law prohibits. Fifth, the changes take effect on 1 January 2027.

The Division of Elections summary describes that last rule as applying to the extent the US Constitution permits. The resolution adds that, from 1 January 2030, a county or municipality may shorten the five-year wait by a two-thirds vote to meet a critical local need. It also limits local referendums on a higher exemption to one in any twelve months, with an approved increase starting the following 1 January.

How the wording was rewritten in August

The title and summary now on the state's register are not the ones the Legislature wrote. The resolution's own ballot title was "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes".

On 4 August 2026 a circuit judge in Leon County, David Frank, ruled on whether that title and its summary were fair and accurate, according to the Orlando station WKMG and the Florida Phoenix. As WKMG reports the ruling, the judge found that the language relied on political taglines, that the amendment could not fairly be described as ensuring funding for core services, and that it does not require the full elimination of non-school homestead taxes. He also said he could not remove the measure from the ballot and was not judging its merits.

The judge gave the office of Attorney General James Uthmeier ten days to supply new language. CBS News Miami reports that he released it on Thursday 13 August. The Division of Elections lists the measure under the rewritten title, "Increased Homestead Exemption; Lower Cap on Increases in Non-Homestead Property Assessments", with a summary that describes each change without the earlier claims, and attaches the attorney general's letter to its record. Only the title and summary changed: the constitutional text passed in June is the same.

One bill, three years: a worked example

The amendment changes the taxable value on which non-school rates are charged, and nothing else on the bill. The following is a worked example, with invented round figures, of a home that is already a Florida homestead.

Assumptions: an assessed value of US$400,000 that stays flat for three years; non-school levies totalling US$10 per US$1,000 of taxable value and school levies of US$6 per US$1,000, both unchanged; today's non-school exemption taken as US$50,000, the amount the Tampa Bay Times and CBS News Miami give, with no inflation adjustment; and a school exemption of US$25,000. Under the amendment the non-school exemption covers assessed value up to US$150,000, then up to US$250,000.

Three things follow from the mechanism. A homestead assessed at US$250,000 or less would have no taxable value for non-school levies from 2028, but would still pay the school portion. A buyer who moves to Florida in 2027 would stay on the 2026 line of the table until the fifth year of exemption. And the example holds tax rates still: if a county or city changes its rate, the result changes with it.

The case made by each side

Supporters argue that bills have risen too fast and that local budgets can absorb the difference. NBC6 reports that Governor Ron DeSantis supports the measure and points to the budget surpluses of cities and counties. CBS News Miami reports his point that the property tax revenue of local governments rose from US$31 billion in 2019 to US$55 billion in 2024. The governor had wanted more: CBS12 reported on 18 September that the version the Legislature passed left out two of his priorities, extending the larger exemption to school property taxes and creating a state fund for counties with limited tax bases.

Opponents concentrate on what the exemption removes from local budgets. The Legislature's Revenue Estimating Conference, a panel of economists, estimated in July that cities and counties could lose nearly US$12 billion a year by 2031, the Tampa Bay Times reported; the figure it cites is US$11.8 billion. The same report gave projections for the Tampa Bay area: more than US$260.8 million for Hillsborough County in the 2028 fiscal year, and US$153 million for Pinellas County in 2027-28, rising to more than US$318 million by fiscal year 2032. In south-east Florida, NBC6 cites Florida Association of Counties estimates of more than US$300 million for Broward County and more than US$445 million for Miami-Dade.

WKMG reports that the Florida Sheriffs Association, the Florida State Fraternal Order of Police, Florida Professional Firefighters and the Florida Fire Chiefs Association oppose the measure, and that the Florida League of Cities says its member governments already spend more on public safety, on average, than they raise in property tax. Tampa's mayor, Jane Castor, made the same point about her city's police and fire costs to the Tampa Bay Times.

What happens on and after 3 November

The amendment needs 60% of the votes cast on it. If it reaches that share, it takes effect on 1 January 2027, the date from which the US$150,000 exemption and the 5% cap apply. The Legislature would then have to write the general law that sets the procedure for further local exemptions, and the list of permitted uses of county and municipal property tax would apply from the same date. If it falls short, the exemption and the 10% cap on non-homestead assessments stay as they are.

For agents and buyers the practical point is one of timing. Property tax estimates given to a buyer this autumn rest on rules that may differ from January, and the difference depends on whether the home will be a homestead and on when its owner became a Florida resident.

Kooky, from Shaka

Kooky edits Agents Estate and builds Shaka, the payment router he made for real estate professionals. One payment comes in, and every agent, agency and party in the deal receives their signed share on closing date.

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